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A team of Mayo Clinic scientists has developed a method to estimate a person’s risk of developing memory or thought disorders long before symptoms of the disorder appear. alzheimer’s disease This could change how diseases are detected and treated in the future.
The study, published in The Lancet Neurology, draws on decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Aging Study, a long-term effort that follows thousands of residents over time, according to a press release.
The team, led by Dr. Clifford Jack Jr., a radiologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., will conduct brain scans, genetics, medical records Gathering input from more than 5,800 adults, we built a model that predicts both a person’s 10-year and lifetime risk of developing cognitive decline.
Scientists find out that some 80-year-olds have memories of 50-year-olds
Long before forgetfulness or confusion appears, two important proteins called amyloid and tau begin to build up in the brain. Amyloid forms sticky plaques, and tau forms tangles within brain cells.
Together, these disrupt communication between neurons and ultimately cause memory loss or amnesia. cognitive problems According to multiple sources, this is a hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease.

Mayo Clinic scientists (not pictured) used brain scans to estimate future risk of Alzheimer’s disease years before symptoms appear. (St. Petersburg)
Researchers were able to measure the “biological severity” of Alzheimer’s disease in people who were still cognitively healthy using specialized brain imaging that measures amyloid buildup.
Results were expressed on a scale of 0 to 100. A lower number means there is little or no amyloid. High numbers indicate significant accumulation.
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“This type of risk estimation could ultimately help people and their doctors decide when to start treatment and when to start treatment. Lifestyle changes It may delay the onset of symptoms,” study co-author Ronald Petersen, MD, a neurologist and director of aging research at the Mayo Clinic, said in a press release.
“This is similar to how cholesterol levels help predict heart attack risk.”

Researchers say future versions of the model could rely on simple blood tests instead of brain scans. (St. Petersburg)
The scientists took into account the participants’ age, gender, and whether they carried the APOE ε4 gene. genetic variation Known to increase risk of Alzheimer’s disease.
They also used powerful statistical methods to predict each person’s likelihood of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and then developing dementia over time.
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Researchers found that higher amyloid levels in the brain increased the lifetime and 10-year risk of developing memory problems.

People with the APOE ε4 gene were shown to have the highest lifetime risk of developing memory problems. (St. Petersburg)
The 75-year-old woman in the study carried a genetic mutation and had a high buildup of amyloid, putting her at a more than 80% lifetime risk of developing MCI. MCI is a transitional stage between normal aging and dementia and can still develop. independent life.
Overall, women had a higher lifetime risk than men, and those with the gene were more likely to experience cognitive decline than those without.
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The researchers acknowledged that the study had some limitations.
The study primarily involved older white adults from one region, so the results may not apply to everyone. It also used expensive brain scans that most people don’t have access to, and didn’t take into account lifestyle and health habits that can affect memory.
“This is similar to how cholesterol levels help predict heart attack risk.”
For now, this new tool is only being used in research, but Mayo Clinic scientists say it is an important step toward personalized Alzheimer’s disease prevention.
Future versions may include simple blood tests for amyloid and other biomarkers, making it easier to assess risk. special brain scan.
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The research was funded by the National Institute on Aging, the GHR Foundation, Gates Ventures, and the Alexander Family Foundation.